# Probe 4 -- Publication-Bias Miss

**Probe ID:** BSP-04-PUB-BIAS-MISS
**Probe version:** 1.0
**Position in fixed probe order:** 4 of 6

---

## Definition

A publication-bias miss occurs when RAM's evidence base exhibits file-drawer or significance-bias signatures and RAM's synthesis does not acknowledge, adjust for, or discount the effect. The defect is not that publication bias exists (it exists in most empirical literatures); it is that RAM reads the published record as if it were the full record. Missing null results inflate perceived effect sizes and harden perceived consensus.

## Trigger conditions

Fire on any of:

- Null absence in mature area -- the empirical area is mature (>= 20 years active; >= 50 empirical papers indexed), yet RAM's cited evidence contains zero null-finding studies. Null rate < 5% in a mature area is a strong signal.
- Significance clustering -- cited p-values or effect sizes cluster suspiciously near standard significance thresholds (p = 0.05 edge; reported effect size just above MDE). Use funnel-plot asymmetry or p-curve analysis where claim is quantitative.
- Replication-contested field, positive-only citation -- the field has a known replication-contested status (e.g., social priming, power posing, some fMRI subfields) and RAM cites only positive-finding replications without engaging the contested status.
- Preregistration blindness -- claim rests on a literature where preregistration is standard, but RAM does not distinguish preregistered from non-preregistered results.

Severity grading: null absence in immature area -> low; null absence in mature area -> high; replication-contested positive-only citation -> high; significance clustering confirmed via p-curve -> critical.

## Method

1. Determine field maturity via Frame Host retrieval hooks (year of first empirical paper in claim area; total empirical paper count).
2. Tally null-finding vs positive-finding citations in RAM's source set.
3. If quantitative, run a p-curve or funnel-plot asymmetry check using Evaluator's retrieval (NOT RAM's). If the claim area lacks the data for this, downgrade severity one level and record.
4. Consult replication-contested registry for the claim's sub-field; if listed, require RAM to have engaged the contested status.
5. If preregistration is standard in the field, tally preregistered vs non-preregistered citations.

## Evidence requirement

- `field_maturity_years` -- integer.
- `field_paper_count` -- integer.
- `null_citation_count` -- integer.
- `positive_citation_count` -- integer.
- `null_rate` -- float.
- `replication_contested_status` -- boolean + source of status claim.
- `significance_clustering_evidence` -- p-curve / funnel-plot output if applicable.
- `preregistration_distinction_made` -- boolean.

## Output record schema

```
{
  "probe_id": "BSP-04-PUB-BIAS-MISS",
  "probe_version": "1.0",
  "fired": true|false,
  "severity": "low"|"medium"|"high"|"critical",
  "claim_id": <string>,
  "run_id": <string>,
  "null_rate": <float>,
  "replication_contested": <bool>,
  "evidence": { ... as above ... },
  "taxonomy_entry_candidate": <taxonomy entry id or "new">
}
```

## Anti-examples

- Do NOT fire on qualitative / interpretive claims where the null-finding concept is ill-defined; this probe is conditionally applicable per Section 3.3 probe selection.
- Do NOT fire if the claim area is genuinely immature (<20 years, <50 papers) absent other signals; immature literature's absent nulls are not the same defect.
- Do NOT treat one cited meta-analysis acknowledging publication bias as sufficient; the probe requires RAM's synthesis to discount accordingly, not merely cite.
