# Probe 3 -- Forced Closure

**Probe ID:** BSP-03-FORCED-CLOSURE
**Probe version:** 1.0
**Position in fixed probe order:** 3 of 6

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## Definition

Forced closure is premature convergence: RAM compresses genuinely unresolved inter-source disagreement into a single verdict, expresses confidence higher than source agreement supports, or asserts "consensus" where cited sources diverge. The defect is structural, not evidentiary -- the sources may all exist, be correctly cited, and be correctly tiered, yet the synthesis step collapses them dishonestly.

Forced closure is the mirror image of monoculture: monoculture is one source pretending to be many; forced closure is many sources pretending to be one.

## Trigger conditions

Fire on any of:

- Disagreement compression -- the source set contains directly contradicting findings on the claim, and RAM's verdict resolves the contradiction without citing the resolution mechanism.
- Confidence overshoot -- RAM-stated confidence exceeds the maximum confidence supportable by the agreement rate among cited sources. Threshold: stated confidence > (agreement_rate + 10 percentage points).
- Consensus assertion with divergence -- RAM uses "consensus," "established," "settled," or equivalent language for a claim where source agreement rate is <80%.
- Unresolved disagreement list empty -- RAM's output artifact contains no "open disagreements" record for a claim that the source set shows open disagreements on.

Severity grading: single compression event -> medium; confidence overshoot >= 20 points -> high; consensus assertion with <60% agreement -> critical; repeated pattern across >=3 claims in same artifact -> critical.

## Method

1. Extract per-source findings on the claim from the Audit Method Engine artifact.
2. Classify each source-finding into: supports, contradicts, partial, ambiguous.
3. Compute agreement rate = supports / (supports + contradicts + partial).
4. Extract RAM's stated confidence and synthesis language.
5. Compare RAM confidence vs agreement-rate-supportable ceiling (agreement_rate + 10 points).
6. Scan synthesis language for "consensus" class terms; if present, require agreement_rate >= 0.80.
7. Check RAM's "open disagreements" list against the ambiguous / contradicting subset; missing entries fire.

## Evidence requirement

- `source_findings_classified` -- per-source classification.
- `agreement_rate` -- computed float.
- `ram_stated_confidence` -- float or ordinal.
- `confidence_gap` -- RAM confidence minus (agreement_rate + 0.10).
- `consensus_terms_used` -- list of instances.
- `open_disagreements_missing` -- sources that should appear in RAM's open-disagreements list but do not.

## Output record schema

```
{
  "probe_id": "BSP-03-FORCED-CLOSURE",
  "probe_version": "1.0",
  "fired": true|false,
  "severity": "low"|"medium"|"high"|"critical",
  "claim_id": <string>,
  "run_id": <string>,
  "agreement_rate": <float>,
  "confidence_gap": <float>,
  "evidence": { ... as above ... },
  "taxonomy_entry_candidate": <taxonomy entry id or "new">
}
```

## Anti-examples

- Do NOT fire on small source sets (<3 sources) where agreement rate is undefined or unstable; attach low-N caveat.
- Do NOT treat differences in emphasis as contradictions; require substantive disagreement on the claim itself.
- Do NOT forgive "consensus" terms by pointing to the abstract; terms in the load-bearing synthesis paragraph are the evidence.
- Do NOT resolve the probe internally; forced closure is a structural defect, and the resolution is flagged back, not fixed inside E5.
